HARD COUNTMEMORABILIAHC
Hard Count
Memorabilia
By The Odds · Football

2025 Donruss Optic Football

Panini doesn't publish pack odds, so this one runs on print runs and real sales. Every autograph set, how many copies exist, and what Optic autos actually sell for.

Released
Jan 26, 2026
Hobby box now
About $586
Hobby box config
20 packs × 4
Autos per hobby box
1 on average
Base set
200 + 100 Rated Rookies
Auto signers
194

The scorecard

The same numbers for every release, so you can line products up. Compare all releases

Hobby box20 packs of 4 cards
Price$586eBay median of 4 sales, Sep to Oct 2026 · $875 list
Hits per box1Panini's stated average, no odds
Cost per hit$586Box price ÷ hits
Autographs per box1100% of hits
Expected hit value$285% of the box price, from the average auto sale
Typical box$13Median auto sale. Half do worse
RetailValue blaster
Price$32eBay median, no list price found
Any hitNone listedPanini publishes no odds
AutographNot statedAutos do turn up, rarely
Cost per hit–Needs published odds

Panini publishes no pack odds, so hits are its stated box average and values are real auto sales, not a model194 autograph signers

Donruss Optic is Panini’s chrome football set, and the 2025 edition came out January 26, 2026. A hobby box is 20 packs of four cards with one autograph on average, plus 20 Rated Rookies and a dozen parallels.

Panini doesn’t publish pack odds, so there’s no honest way to say how often you’ll pull a given player. What Panini does publish is the checklist with print runs. So this breakdown works from that: every autograph set, how many numbered copies exist, and three months of real eBay sales for what the autos sell for.

01

What's in it

The set at a glance, from Panini's checklist and box configurations.

Swipe for more

Base set
300cards

200 base cards and 100 Rated Rookies, with more than 30 base parallels. Rated Rookies fall one per hobby pack.

Hobby box
1autograph on average

20 packs of four. Panini lists one auto, 9 numbered parallels, 3 Holo parallels, 4 inserts and 20 Rated Rookies per box on average. Panini listed it at $874.95; the last four sealed boxes on eBay went for a median of about $586.

FOTL and Choice
2autos in an FOTL

1st Off The Line boxes add an FOTL-only Purple Stars auto numbered to 42 or less. Online-only Choice boxes hold a single Black Gold auto.

Mega and blaster
1auto or relic per mega

Megas list one autograph or relic on average and three Red Hyper Rated Rookies. Value blasters list no hits at all, only three blaster-only Rated Rookie parallels.

Top sellers
  • Tyler Shough
  • Cam Skattebo
  • Ashton Jeanty
  • Colston Loveland
  • Tetairoa McMillan

Highest median raw autograph sale among players with at least five sales since July.

Worth knowing
  • Cam Ward
  • Jaxson Dart

Neither has an autograph in this set. Both appear only on relic cards.

02

What the numbers say

Five things the checklist and three months of sales tell you.

  1. $12.75median raw Optic autograph sale

    01One auto per box, and most sell for under $20.

    Across 603 raw autograph sales from this set since July 10, the median was $12.75 and 58% went for under $20. The average is $28, pulled up by a few big names. Next to a $586 box, the auto alone rarely covers it. Much of a hobby box's value sits in the 20 Rated Rookies and numbered parallels, which this page doesn't price.

  2. 89%of numbered autos are Rated Rookie autos

    02The rookie auto is the box.

    The Rated Rookie and Rated Rookie RPS autos make up 101,114 of the 114,021 numbered autograph copies on the checklist. The base versions are numbered to 350, and each has a ladder of parallels down to 1/1. Patch autos are rare by comparison: 2,812 copies across the rookie, Dynamic and Legendary sets.

  3. $201Tyler Shough median, 10 sales

    03Sales and print runs point at different names.

    Tyler Shough leads every player with five or more sales, ahead of Cam Skattebo at $70 and Ashton Jeanty at $65. Shough also has fewer numbered auto copies than Jeanty, Travis Hunter or Shedeur Sanders. Hunter and Sanders sell often, 24 and 26 times, at medians of $40.50 and $49.50.

  4. 2.2%the biggest single share of numbered autos

    04No one name is more than a sliver.

    Shedeur Sanders has the most numbered autograph copies at 2,501, about 2.2% of the total. Hunter, Jeanty and McMillan are near 2% each. Panini doesn't say how cards are spread across boxes, so that isn't a chance per box. It does show how thin any single player is.

  5. $5.50typical veteran auto

    05Veterans sell for half of what rookies do.

    The middle veteran in this set sells for about $5.50 per autograph, against about $11.50 for the middle rookie. That gap is why the Rated Rookie autos carry the set.

03

Explore the print runs

Pick a format to see what it holds. Then look at every autograph set, a single player, a team, or how teams stack up by numbered copies.

04

How we got these

How we got these numbers

Panini doesn’t publish pack odds for Donruss Optic, so nothing on this page is a chance per box. The hits per box are the averages Panini lists for each format.

Print runs come from Panini’s checklist. “Numbered copies” adds up the serial numbers: a card numbered to 350 counts as 350 copies. Dual and triple autos are split evenly between the signers. Three autograph sets are unnumbered, so their size isn’t known and they aren’t in the totals.

Sales are raw eBay sold listings for autographs from this set, July 10 to October 8, 2026, auctions and Buy It Now together. Graded cards and lots are left out.

What to keep in mind

  • A share of the print run isn’t odds. Panini could pack some sets more heavily into certain formats, and it doesn’t say.
  • Player medians mix every version of their autos, base and parallels together. Players with only one or two sales move a lot.
  • The scorecard’s hit value is the average raw auto sale for the whole set, not a per-player model. The typical box is the median auto sale.
  • The hobby box price rests on four eBay sales. The blaster price is the eBay median, since we couldn’t find a Panini list price.

Sources

Checklist and print runs from Panini, via the checklist download at Checklist Insider. Box configurations and release pricing via Checklist Insider. Card and box sales from eBay sold listings, pulled October 8, 2026.